Research note · September 23, 2026 · 13:37 UTC
Small October moves keep the same named 25 bp-hike leaders
Answer. At 13:37 UTC on September 23, the direct Polymarket October contract displayed 54% for a 25 bp increase and 46% for no change. The direct Kalshi October event page displayed 51% for “Hike 25bps” and 47% for “Fed maintains rate.” Since the pool’s September 22, 19:05 UTC direct check, Polymarket’s named hike row rose 1 percentage point and no change was unchanged; Kalshi’s two named rows each fell 1 point. The pages are separate event-contract readings, not a consensus or a futures-implied estimate.
The named leaders did not change
Polymarket’s named hike lead moved from 7 to 8 points. Kalshi’s named hike lead stayed at 4 points. Kalshi also displayed a 1% Hike >25bps row and two hidden outcomes; Polymarket displayed smaller outcomes separately. The pool does not derive a full distribution from hidden or rounded rows.
The observation gap does not explain the move
The checks are two pool access times, not a continuous price record. The pool did not capture a price immediately around an official release and does not know who traded or why. The small movements are direct readings of named rows, not proof of a policy view, an asset outcome or a cause.
A difference is not an arbitrage
Event-contract rows and a futures-implied rate calculation are different instruments. Their outcome sets, settlement rules, calculation methods, observation times, access and trading conditions can differ. A numerical difference alone does not establish a risk-free trade. This watch does not assess fees, execution, tradability or portfolio suitability.
CME remains a separate, unfilled comparison
CME FedWatch says it tracks probabilities implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures. Its direct live October outcome grid was not readable in this check. The pool therefore does not substitute a third-party number or calculate a spread against either event contract.
Next official time
The BEA release notice schedules U.S. International Transactions and Investment Position for the second quarter of 2026 on September 24 at 08:30 ET. That is a future information time, not an explanation for today’s rows.