October 31, 2026 · about 13:37 UTC
December hike rows near 70%; little change since Friday evening
Kalshi’s December hike heading was 70% and Polymarket’s separate named row 71%, one point above the previous evening page checks. Native quote times and causes are unknown.
October 30, 2026 · about 19:06 UTC
December hike displays fall to 69% and 70%
Kalshi’s Chance heading fell three points and Polymarket’s separate named row two points since the midday page checks. Native quote times and causes are unknown.
October 30, 2026 · about 13:35 UTC
December hike rows fall five points to 72%
Kalshi and Polymarket separate December 25-basis-point-hike displays each fell from 77% to 72% since the October 29 evening page checks. Native quote times and cause are unknown.
October 29, 2026 · about 19:06 UTC
December hike rows show 77% on both venues
Kalshi’s Chance heading fell from 80% to 77% and Polymarket’s named row from 78% to 77% between page checks today. Native quote times and cause are unknown.
October 29, 2026 · about 13:34 UTC
December hike rows ease as BEA releases arrive
Kalshi showed 80% and Polymarket 78% for December 25-basis-point-hike rows; the release chronology does not prove causation.
October 28, 2026 · about 19:05 UTC
Fed holds at 3.75%–4.00%; December hike rows lead
The October decision is official. December event pages show 81% on Kalshi and 82% on Polymarket for a 25-basis-point hike; these are separate page observations without quote times.
October 28, 2026 · about 13:35 UTC
October hold leads before the decision: Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 93%
Hold still leads on both accessible event pages. The Fed statement is scheduled for 18:00 UTC; quote times and price cause remain unknown.
October 27, 2026 · about 19:02 UTC
October hold leads: Kalshi 94%, Polymarket 95%
Kalshi maintain was unchanged since midday; Polymarket no change rose one point in named rows. Quote times and cause remain unknown.
October 27, 2026 · about 13:35 UTC
October hold: 94% on both direct pages
Kalshi maintain rose one point since the morning page check; Polymarket no change was unchanged. Quote times and cause remain unknown.
October 27, 2026 · about 09:43 UTC
October hold still leads: Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 94%
Kalshi maintain is unchanged and Polymarket no change is one point lower than the October 24 page checks. Quote times and cause are unknown.
October 24, 2026 · about 19:04 UTC
October hold leads: Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 95%
Kalshi maintain 93% and Polymarket no change 95%; the hold displays rose 2 and 3 percentage points since the October 23 evening check. Quote times and cause are unknown.
October 23, 2026 · about 19:03 UTC
October hold still leads: Kalshi 91%, Polymarket 92%
Both hold displays fell one point since midday; the October meeting has no scheduled projections release. Quote times and cause are unknown.
October 23, 2026 · about 13:35 UTC
October hold still leads at 92% on Kalshi and 93% on Polymarket
Kalshi’s maintain-rate Chance heading was 92%; Polymarket’s no-change named row was 93%. Each fell two points since the October 22 evening check. Quote times and cause are unknown.
October 22, 2026 · about 19:06 UTC
October hold readings rise to 94% on Kalshi and 95% on Polymarket
Kalshi’s maintain-rate Chance heading was 94%; Polymarket’s no-change named row was 95%. They rose five and four points since the midday page checks. Quote times and causes are unknown.
October 22, 2026 · about 13:34 UTC
October hold leads at 89% on Kalshi and 91% on Polymarket
Kalshi’s maintain-rate Chance heading was 89% and Polymarket’s no-change named row was 91%. Weekly claims were released between checks; quote times and price causes are unknown.
October 21, 2026 · 19:05 UTC
October hold still leads after earnings release
Kalshi’s maintain-rate Chance heading was 88% and Polymarket’s no-change named row was 87%. BLS earnings arrived between page checks, but the one-point changes have no verified cause.
October 21, 2026 · about 13:36 UTC
October hold still leads before scheduled weekly earnings
Kalshi’s maintain-rate Chance heading was 89%; Polymarket’s separate no-change named row was 88%. The BLS release was scheduled after the checks. Quote times and price causes are unknown.
October 20, 2026 · about 19:07 UTC
October hold still leads after state jobs release
Kalshi’s maintain-rate Chance heading was 88%; Polymarket’s separate no-change named row was 86%. BLS published state employment between checks, but quote times and price causes are unknown.
October 20, 2026 · about 13:35 UTC
October hold reads 87% on both direct event pages
Kalshi’s maintain-rate Chance heading and Polymarket’s separate no-change named row both read 87%. Venue quote times and cause are unknown.
October 19, 2026 · about 19:07 UTC
October hold still leads; Polymarket no-change row is 85%
Kalshi’s maintain-rate Chance heading was 86%; Polymarket’s separate no-change row was 85%. Venue quote times and cause remain unknown.
October 19, 2026 · about 13:33 UTC
October hold still leads at 86% on both pages
Both named hold rows fell one point from the previous check; hold still leads. Venue quote times and cause are unknown.
October 18, 2026 · about 19:04 UTC
October hold remains at 87% in evening checks
Kalshi’s maintain-rate heading and Polymarket’s separate no-change row stayed at 87%. Kalshi’s hike heading fell two points to 12%; venue quote times remain unavailable.
October 18, 2026 · about 13:36 UTC
October hold readings remain at 87% in midday checks
Kalshi’s maintain-rate heading and Polymarket’s separate no-change row were unchanged at 87%. Kalshi’s hike heading rose one point to 14%; quote times remain unavailable.
October 18, 2026 · about 01:36 UTC
October hold readings stay at 87% in a new page check
Kalshi’s maintain-rate heading and Polymarket’s separate no-change row were unchanged at 87%. Kalshi’s hike heading fell one point to 13%; venue quote times remain unavailable.
October 17, 2026 · about 22:32 UTC
October hold reaches 87% on both direct event pages
Kalshi’s maintain-rate heading and Polymarket’s separate no-change row each reached 87%. They rose 15 and 14 percentage points since October 15, but quote times and cause remain unknown.
October 15, 2026 · about 19:05 UTC
October hold still leads in evening page checks
Kalshi’s maintain-rate heading was 72% and Polymarket’s separate no-change row 73%. Small opposing moves since 13:34 UTC left hold ahead; venue quote times and the cause are unknown.
October 15, 2026 · about 13:34 UTC
October hold still leads; PPI rises 1.3%
Kalshi’s hold heading was 71% and Polymarket’s separate no-change row 74%. BLS reported September PPI up 1.3%; venue quote times are unavailable, so a post-release response is not established.
October 14, 2026 · about 19:04 UTC
October hold leads again at both venues after the midday split
Both named October hold rows reached 69% after a midday venue split. The Beige Book was published between checks; cause is not established.
October 14, 2026 · about 13:34 UTC
October Fed decision: CPI-day prices split the venues
After September CPI, Kalshi’s hold Chance heading fell to 53%; Polymarket’s separate hike row rose to 52% and became its leader. The two checks do not prove a cause.
October 13, 2026 · about 19:06 UTC
October hold still leads in the evening before CPI
Kalshi’s hold Chance heading was 82% and hike heading 19%; Polymarket’s separate named rows stayed 80% and 20%. Hold still leads; the small Kalshi change has no verified cause.
October 13, 2026 · about 15:18 UTC
October hold still leads in pre-CPI direct check
Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 81% maintain and 21% Hike 25bps; Polymarket’s separate named rows were 80% No change and 20% 25 bps increase. Hold still leads before CPI; the small Kalshi move has no verified cause.
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October 12: hold rows fall to 80%; calendar correction and CPI next
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October 10 evening: hold still leads after a small hike-row decline
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October 8: October hold still leads; small moves since last check
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October 7 evening: minutes point to a year-end hike; October hold still leads
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October 6 evening: hold still leads; both named rows edge up one point
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October 5 evening: both named hold rows fall four points; hold still leads
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October 4 evening: both hold rows at 83%; little changed since midday
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October 4: Kalshi 82% hold, Polymarket 83%; little changed since Saturday
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October 3 evening: Kalshi hold heading reaches 84%; Polymarket remains 83%
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October 3: hold still leads; small changes leave the venues 2 points apart
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October 2 evening: hold still leads at 82% on both event pages
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September 30 evening: October hold still leads; little changed since midday
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September 30: October hold rows extend to 65–66% after BEA releases
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Research log
October 29, 2026: December hike rows lower at post-BEA check
Each note records a sourced answer, access time, and limits.
September 28, 2026 · 19:05 UTC
October contract check: Kalshi 70% hike, Polymarket 69%
Kalshi’s named October hike and hold headings showed 70% and 29%, up 3 and down 3 points since 13:33 UTC. Polymarket’s separate increase and no-change rows showed 69% and 31%, up 3 and down 2 points. CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 28, 2026 · 13:33 UTC
October Fed-contract readings: Kalshi 67% hike, Polymarket 66%
Kalshi’s named hike heading is 67%, up 1 point since September 27 evening; its maintain-rate heading is 32%, down 3 points. Polymarket shows 66% for a 25 bp increase and 33% no change, up 1 and down 1 point. CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 27, 2026 · 19:03 UTC
Kalshi’s October hike heading rises to 66%; Polymarket remains at 65%
Kalshi’s named Hike 25bps heading rose 2 percentage points since 13:35 UTC, while its maintain-rate heading stayed at 35%. Polymarket’s 65% increase and 34% no-change rows did not move. CME’s live October grid remained unreadable.
September 27, 2026 · 13:35 UTC
October contract rows still favor a 25 bp hike
At 13:35 UTC, Kalshi’s October Chance headings showed 64% for Hike 25bps and 35% for maintain rate; Polymarket’s direct rows showed 65% for a 25 bp increase and 34% no change. The named hike rows were unchanged from their prior direct checks. CME’s live October grid remained unreadable.
September 26, 2026 · 19:03 UTC
Kalshi holds its 64% October hike heading; Polymarket could not be rechecked
Kalshi’s named Chance headings remained 64% for Hike 25bps and 36% for maintain rate. Polymarket’s direct page showed a U.S. location gate, so its last verified 13:37 UTC rows remain labelled as such. CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 26, 2026 · 13:37 UTC
Kalshi’s October hike heading returns to 64%; Polymarket is 65%
Kalshi’s named Chance headings showed 64% for Hike 25bps and 36% for maintain rate, reversing its September 25 evening leader. Polymarket showed 65% for a 25 bp increase versus 34% no change. CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 25, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
Kalshi names a 69% October hold; Polymarket still names a 63% hike
Kalshi’s named Chance headings showed 69% maintain rate and 29% Hike 25bps, reversing its earlier named leader. Polymarket showed 63% for a 25 bp increase versus 37% no change. CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 25, 2026 · 13:33 UTC
October’s named 25 bp-hike rows reach 67% on both direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 67% for a named 25 bp hike versus 33% maintain rate. Polymarket displayed 67% for a 25 bp increase versus 33% no change. Since the September 24 evening access, the named hike rows rose 2 and 1 points; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 24, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
October’s named 25 bp-hike leads widen on both direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 65% for a named 25 bp hike versus 35% maintain rate. Polymarket displayed 66% for a 25 bp increase versus 34% no change. Both named hike rows rose 2 points from the 13:35 UTC access; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 24, 2026 · 13:35 UTC
October’s named 25 bp-hike leads narrow to 28 points on both direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 63% for a named 25 bp hike versus 35% maintain rate. Polymarket displayed 64% for a 25 bp increase versus 36% no change. Both named hike rows were lower than the September 23 evening access; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 23, 2026 · 19:04 UTC
October hike rows rise 15 points on Kalshi and 14 points on Polymarket
Kalshi displayed 66% for a named 25 bp hike versus 32% maintain rate. Polymarket displayed 68% for a 25 bp increase versus 33% no change. Both named hike rows rose sharply from the 13:37 UTC check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 23, 2026 · 13:37 UTC
Small October moves keep the same named 25 bp-hike leaders
Polymarket displayed 54% for a 25 bp increase and 46% for no change. Kalshi displayed 51% for a named 25 bp hike and 47% for maintain rate. The named leaders held after 1-point moves; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 22, 2026 · 19:05 UTC
Polymarket’s October hike row moves from a tie to a 7-point lead; Kalshi is at 52%
Polymarket displayed 53% for a 25 bp increase and 46% for no change. Kalshi displayed 52% for a named 25 bp hike and 48% for maintain rate. Since 13:38 UTC, Polymarket changed from a tie to a named hike lead; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 22, 2026 · 13:38 UTC
Kalshi’s named October hike row moves back ahead; Polymarket is tied at 50%
Kalshi displayed 51% for a named 25 bp hike and 47% for maintain rate. Polymarket displayed 50% for a 25 bp increase and 50% for no change. Since the September 21 evening check, Kalshi’s named leader changed while Polymarket tied; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 21, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
Evening recheck: October’s venue split holds; Kalshi’s named hike row eases to 48%
Kalshi displayed 50% for maintain rate and 48% for a named 25 bp hike. Polymarket displayed 50% for a 25 bp increase and 49% for no change. The core venue split held from 13:38 UTC; Kalshi’s named hike row was 1 point lower, and CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 21, 2026 · 13:38 UTC
Near even in October: Kalshi names maintain rate; Polymarket names a 25 bp hike
Kalshi displayed 50% for maintain rate and 49% for a named 25 bp hike. Polymarket displayed 50% for a 25 bp increase and 49% for no change. Compared with the prior direct check, both pages moved closer to even; the venue-specific 1-point leaders differ, and CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 20, 2026 · 19:08 UTC
Kalshi reaches 56%; Polymarket’s 56% October hike row holds
Kalshi displayed 56% for a named 25 bp hike versus 45% hold; Polymarket held 56% versus 44%. Kalshi rose 1 percentage point from the 13:37 UTC check, the identified leader did not change, and CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 20, 2026 · 13:37 UTC
Kalshi’s named October hike row edges to 55%; Polymarket holds at 56%
Kalshi displayed 55% for a 25 bp hike versus 45% hold; Polymarket held 56% versus 44%. The 1-point Kalshi move did not change the identified leader, and CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 19, 2026 · 19:11 UTC
Evening check: October’s named hike rows hold; the direct CME gap remains
Kalshi remained 54% for a 25 bp hike versus 45% hold, with a separately displayed 2% Hike >25bps row. Polymarket remained 56% versus 44%. The leading rows matched the earlier check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 19, 2026 · 13:33 UTC
October’s named hike row still leads; the venue moves split
Kalshi displayed 54% for a 25 bp hike versus 45% hold; Polymarket displayed 56% versus 44%. Kalshi’s named gap narrowed 4 points from the evening check, while Polymarket’s widened 1; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 18, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
October’s named hike lead widens on direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 56% for a 25 bp hike versus 43% hold; Polymarket displayed 55% versus 44%. Both named hike rows rose from the afternoon direct check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 18, 2026 · 13:38 UTC
October’s 25 bp-hike row leads on two direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 52% for a 25 bp hike versus 46% hold; Polymarket displayed 53% versus 46%. Both named hike rows rose and no-change rows fell from the prior direct check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 17, 2026 · 19:03 UTC
October event-contract odds move closer again
Kalshi displayed 52% no change and 47% for a 25 bp hike; Polymarket displayed 52% and 49%. The named gaps narrowed in a matched same-day check; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 17, 2026 · 13:34 UTC
October’s no-change lead narrows on two direct event pages
Kalshi displayed 55% hold and 45% for a 25 bp hike; Polymarket displayed 54% no change and 47% for a 25 bp increase. Those named rows narrowed materially from the first post-decision direct checks; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 16, 2026 · 19:08 UTC
The September decision is official; October event pages lean to no change
The FOMC raised the target range 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote. Direct October event pages showed no change at 62% on Kalshi and 66% on Polymarket; CME’s live grid remained unreadable.
September 16, 2026 · 13:39 UTC
Two direct September event pages display 88% for a 25 bp increase
Before the official statement, Kalshi and Polymarket each displayed named 88% 25 bp-increase and 12% hold/no-change rows. CME’s live grid was not directly captured.
September 15, 2026 · 19:10 UTC
Late check: Kalshi’s hike heading is 88%; the direct Polymarket record remains stale
Kalshi’s named 25 bp-hike heading was 88%. Polymarket’s direct 80%/19% renderer remained source-labelled stale, and CME’s live grid was not directly readable.
September 15, 2026 · 13:33 UTC
Kalshi’s 25 bp-hike heading is 87%; Polymarket’s current direct reading is unverified
Kalshi’s named hike heading was 87%. The last directly verified Polymarket 80% row was stale; CME remained without a directly captured live grid.
September 14, 2026 · 19:06 UTC
Kalshi’s direct 25 bp-hike heading moved to 85%; Polymarket stayed at 80%
Polymarket’s named hike row remained 80% across the pool’s afternoon and evening direct-page checks. Kalshi’s was 85%; the separate measures were not a consensus.
September 14 · September 13 · September 12 · September 11 · September 10 · September 9